Vote yes for AV on the 5th May

At the last election I was fairly ambivalent as to which party I supported, which is unusual for me.  But I was pretty certain that I did not want the Conservatives to win!

  • I was sure that the Osborne form of sado-masochistic economic policy in which we bow to the rich and famous in the naive belief that what is good for them will also be good for the rest of us, was straight wrong.
  • I was sure that the extreme right wing hiding in the bushes under the Cameron PR veneer of a rehabilitated ‘Conservative brand’, were a real and present danger.
  • In fact almost every  one of their policies from schools to immigration, and from banks to Europe rang alarm bells…

The trouble was that I didn’t know how to vote against the Conservatives in my own constituency because the anti conservative vote was evenly split, and the inevitable then happened.  The Conservatives won with a minority of the vote because the anti-conservative vote was split.  Clearly AV would have solved my dilemma…….. but it becomes even more interesting if you follow through the logic.

Under an AV system all parties would understand that choosing policies that alienate large numbers of voters would not be a successful strategy, so it is very likely that extremists within all parties will loose strength. And I would maintain that anything that strengthens the middle ground of politics against the extremist fringes, is very likely to be good for he country.

Professionals now face automation

Artificial intelligence has long been the promise of the computer industry’s future, but until recently it has been characterised by a failure to deliver on almost all fronts. But there is now a serious risk to the professional classes that over the next decade their right to power, status and money will be challenged by a competitor that they cannot beat.

The way this is coming about is not as we might have expected. Take  as an example ‘e-discovery’ software.

In 1978 there was a court case in America in which over 6 million documents had to be examined at a cost of $2.2m, much of it being done by a small army of lawyers and paralegals who worked for months at high hourly rates.

In a similar case today ‘e-discovery’ software has analysed 1.5 million documents for just $100,000.  And these intelligent  discovery products go well beyond simple key word searching and are capable of extracting relevant concepts and spotting relationships that would seldom be picked up by their human counter parts.

As computers become better at mimicking human reasoning skills they are increasingly challenging the people in high powered, well paid jobs. It has been estimated by Mike Lynch (founder of Autonomy) that the software enable 1 lawyer to do the job of 500, and to do it at least twice as well.

The government is lending money to students on the basis that they only have to pay it back if they get well paid jobs.  It is not obvious which degree courses are most likely to provide a secure return on these loans!

Win 7 libraries

There is a quite useful new feature in Window 7 called Libraries.  In essence it is a search service

Lets assume there are customer folders on the network that you go to regularly, you can set up a new Library for ‘Customers’ and then link to the various customer folders that you use most often.

In this example I have just listed 4 customer files.

How to use it

There are a couple of tricky issues in setting this up.

First you need to make sure that the Indexing service on the storage drive is running. Its a tick box on the drive properties.

The next one took a while to work out: if you want to have multiple locations in your library, open the Library and note the link where it says ‘Includes: 3 locations’ , when you click on the link it opens a dialogue box that enable you to add additional links.

Commercial Property Market 2011

The Bank of England reports that 4 out of 5 loans to property owners and developers are in breach of their loan-to-valuation covenants. A total of £243 billion of commercial property loans exist and hang over the whole market.

The risk is that property valuations have been maintained artificially high in an attempt by everybody to ward off serious re-adjustments.  But is the banks start to become more aggressive in foreclosing, it will precipitate a cycle of valuation falls that will put more companies into breaches of their covenants and force more foreclosures; to everybody’s detriment.

The fact that in the 3 years since the peak of the property boom, indebtedness has only fallen by 3%. 54% of these loan will mature before the end of 2014 and there is no immediate prospect of refinancing becoming available.

Posted in O&M

The UK property market Feb 2011

First time buyers should be made a protected species they are so rare. The Banks have tightened mortgage lending so much that the average loan to value ratio is now below 60%, completely stalling the property market.

Last year only 194,600 first time buyers managed to get a loan, which is about 30% of the level 10years ago and the latest figures for Dec 2010 show that the year on year decline is not only continuing, but is accelerating.

As we re-adjust to a new rental model of living, the rental market is becoming more competitive with a reported 4.4 tenants vying for each property that becomes available. Since house building has stopped and we were already short of sufficient dwellings, it looks like we have all the conditions for the next bubble.

Dihydrogen Monoxide should be banned!

Dihydrogen monoxide should be banned as a matter of urgency.

It is well known that this chemical is fatal when inhaled, contributes to the erosion of our natural landscape, may cause electrical failures, and has been found in the excised tumours of terminal cancer patients. And yet we find this dangerous substance in all major food groups and despite all this evidence, nothing is being done to protect us from this threat!

(An old joke – but I like it!)

Mobile Apps are history!

I have always wondered why businesses are so keen on mobile Apps.  They spend significant sums of money developing a bit of software that will only run on a single phone platform – iPhone, Android,  Symbian etc. and then each application has to be fine tuned for individual phone or iPads. It’s a nightmare.

Why not make a mini browser version of the application and run that on any Smart phone using the built in web browser.  After all that was the whole point of developing the html programming language in the first place, so as to make applications platform independent? Up until recently the techie response has always been that the phone apps run much quicker and more smoothly and the web versions are clunky.  This is certainly true, but I am not sure whether it has more to do with the fact that companies are prepared to provide far larger Budgets for brand new state of the art Apps, than they will provide for the provision of mini browser developments….

Now we have HTML5 rapidly becoming a new standard. The HTML5 standard is not yet finalised but the outstanding issues are mainly in areas around the handling of sound, video and data caching. It is very likely that this will get over all the technical differences that differentiate the browser performance from the App. And how common are HTML5 enabled browsers?  So far they includes the latest versions of IE9, Chrome, Firefox and Safari which means that most Smart phones are already compliant.

Writing an HTML5 version of your website for a mobile phone requires most of the same considerations as writing an App:

  • Design for a small screen and with easy data input
  • Enable the special controls available in each phone (GPS, touch screen controls etc)
  • Manage the data caching to cope with intermittent signals etc (not standard in all HTML5 implementations)
  • Manage the data communications with the master web server using Jason queries to keep data transfers efficient

But once it is done, it should work on most phones with only minor tweaks.

Let’s get back to delivering a greater degree of cross platform compatibility.

The parent habit

There was a lovely phrase in a Guardian article today, written by a single mother who brought up a son on her own.  When she first realised she was pregnant and on her own she says “I found it a huge relief to give up the habits of egotism ingrained for 3 decades, in favour of having someone to take care of”.  20 years later her son had to force her back into society when he left for University, and that is the natural order of things. But, it is also clear from the story that she would never have given her son the space to grow up, if he had not fought for it.

Such is the circle of life just as it should be!

Outlook search folders

I have been an Outlook user for many years and have got used to its idiosyncracies. As it has improved over that time I have even got to like it and certainly beome dependant on it as my most used app. But I have only just discovered ‘search folders’.

Search folders are a tool that enables you to search all your other folders and present threads of emails all in one place. It does not move the emails the way that some rules would, it merely organises the presentation. In my case, we have multiple projects with a partner company  and using this facility enables me to ‘see’ each project with that partner alone.

How to set it up

  • In Outlook go to the Mail folder.
  • Click on the down arrow next to the ‘New’ button on the tool bar.
  • choose the ‘New Search Folder’ on the drop down menu
  • Select ‘mail from and to specific people’.
  • Click on the ‘choose’ button
  • put the domain name in the box
  • click on ‘OK’ to save

It may take some time for Outlook to create the new folder..

The Irish Financial Crisis

One of the main lessons that economists claim we have learnt from the 1930 crash and the subsequent depression that lasted most of the decade (and arguably contributed to the war that followed), was that the beggar thy neighbour policy of competitive currency devaluations was a major cause and should never be repeated.

How is it that the Eurosceptics in their smug gloating over the problems of the Euro, have completely ignored (or are ignorant of) this lesson.  Just because England is not in a fixed currency regime with Europe, does not mean that the rest of the world will give us Carte Blanche to get out of our problems by making theirs worse.